Folk Models of Loot Boxes in Video Games
summary
Study uses a content analysis of 80 forum posts and 24 interviews with bottom-up open coding to produce a taxonomy of 15 folk models in four groups. Key findings: players widely misunderstand loot box mechanics, believing in Lucky Combo Buyers and Lucky Locations, activity- and longitudinal-based effects (examples include sequences like 74 then 78 pulls before a five-star), and three causes (business assumptions, empirical experience, superstition). Players request fine-grained, temporal, and wider probability disclosures.
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