Steve Heffernan interviewed at Web 2.0 Expo San Francisco 2011
summary
Recommendation: run both Flash and HTML5 video now because Flash covers the majority of current users but misses iPhone and iPad while HTML5 supports about 50% of users and is growing; expect HTML5 video to supplant Flash for video over years as new developers favor HTML and JavaScript; the codec fight hinges on either h264 being open/free or Apple adopting webm, with Apple’s hardware h264 implementations and MPEG LA interests slowing change.
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