Lifetime value forecast – How to predict your game's revenue
summary
Explains concrete LTV recipes and pitfalls: compute true LTV only by waiting until a cohort dies or use practical forecasts like daily ARPU × estimated lifetime where lifetime is last activity minus install with a chosen inactivity window (example seven days), or derive lifetime as the sum of retention curve values by fitting a retention function and extending it with Excel or Google Sheets Solver. Covers subscription LTV formulas including 1/churn and a two‑rate short/long churn variant and mentions the common 90‑day rule of thumb.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (5)
- 0:00Introduction to LTV
- 1:43Methods of calculating LTV
- 10:07Subscription-based models
- 15:05Optimization strategies
- 15:47Q&A and closing
related talks
14mStop Believing Benchmark Metrics for Your Game
26mMonetizing your games as a service
21mSubscription fatigue: from myths to facts to opportunities
21m80% data, 20% luck – How to make profitable games in 2019
47mMastering LTV: Deconstruction of TapNation AB test process
19mHyper-casual math
16mon increasing your IAP revenue via dynamic pricing
22mSurvival analysis for conversion rates