The Theory Underpinning Scrum
summary
Presents a theory-based justification for Scrum using variational free energy/Bayesian inference to show teams reduce surprise by updating models from observations (includes a numerical example with defect rates and posterior), invokes Wolfram’s cellular automata (Rule 30/110) to argue many futures are incompressible so teams must run experiments, and applies Boyd’s energy‑maneuverability concepts to frame faster outcome loops as competitive advantage. Uses Bayesian math, ML/LLM training analogies, cellular automata, and flight‑performance metrics to position Scrum as an empirically grounded delivery and discovery loop.
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chapters (7)
- 0:00Introduction
- 2:04What is Scrum theory
- 13:38Friston's variational principle
- 35:43Bayesian surprise in Scrum
- 41:41Wolfram's physics project
- 44:51John Boyd's energy maneuverability
- 46:16Summary
