Get Predictability Regardless of Estimates
summary
Uses simple lead‑time histograms (Excel or paper) built from start and finish dates to forecast delivery; separate work by type and class of service, plot lead time distribution, and pick an 85th percentile SLA as a reliable commitment. Five or so completed items give a usable curve (five data points). Example: a team with a 105‑day average turns that data into a 30‑day guaranteed SLA by removing estimates and managing workflow and tails.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (6)
- 0:00Start
- 4:39What's the Difference between Lead Time and Cycle Time
- 9:23Countable Units
- 13:29Model Workflow
- 16:57Modeling the Workflow
- 50:08Class of Service
related talks
36mThe Development Metrics You Should Use (but Don’t)
41mThe Development Metrics You Should Use (but Don’t)
44mAgile metrics for predicting the future
16mPractically predictable – Forecasting delivery when nothing is certai
11mEstimates as probabilities
40mWhat are the odds? Transforming forecasts through probabilities
44mPredictably Agile
41mYour Project Behaves Like a Hurricane--Forecast It Like One