Estimates as probabilities
summary
Claim: replace point estimates with a probability map for time of delivery and iterate probabilities over months, weeks, days and hours. Concrete tools: elicit percentile chances, surface hidden work when the curve stays high, retrain planners until a team-specific sweet spot emerges. Reported effects: faster alignment, less silence in meetings, clearer roadmaps and accountable commitments that can be continuously updated. Rollout requires training and disciplined repetition.
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chapters (6)
- 0:00Introduction
- 1:28Challenge of estimates
- 4:21Estimates as probabilities
- 6:33Benefits for teams
- 9:25Commitment with probabilities
- 10:26Training the method
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