The State of NoEstimates
summary
Argues that typical estimates are just guesses about time or cost and that padding, feature cuts and hidden bookkeeping make them misleading; reports practicing no estimates for 8+ years by shipping tiny, cohesive slices, delivering value in a day or two, and using an 80/20 approach (do the ~4% that gives most value) to decide what to build next; presents the concrete rule deliver the most important thing until it ships or ceases to be most important and shows this reduces wasted planning and forces rapid learning.
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chapters (35)
- 0:00Introduction
- 0:10Postit Notes
- 1:00No Estimates
- 1:25NoEstimates
- 5:16What is an estimate
- 9:51Lets do an estimate
- 11:56Actual work time
- 12:26elapsed time
- 13:22exercise
- 18:27we want help making decisions
- 19:22to exploit the conversation
- 23:13estimates were off
- 24:09requirements kept changing
- 25:09we worked hard
- 25:19we had lessons learned
- 25:45the same thing
- 26:01we actually worked hard
- 26:15lessons learned
- 28:31retrospectives
- 28:47symptoms vs problems
- 30:12questions
- 31:27imagine
- 31:48control uncertainty
- 33:17estimates
- 35:46Russell Acuff
- 45:18Mary Poppins
- 46:01Kent Beck
- 46:41Martin
- 46:59McCarthy
- 47:32Ron Jeffries
- 47:50Bob Martin
- 48:45Joshua Karaski
- 49:15Fred Brooks
- 50:01We make estimates
- 50:16Neil Killick
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