Keynote
summary
Distinguishes risk (known states and probabilities) from true uncertainty and shows simple heuristics often beat complex models. A hiatus heuristic — mark a customer inactive if no purchase in nine months — outpredicts the Pareto/NBD model (74% vs 77% correct). Managers report ~50% of important decisions end as gut calls; defensive decisions affect about one third of choices and 93% of surveyed US doctors admit defensive medicine. A three-question fast-and-frugal tree triages chest pain and outperforms logistic regression, illustrating less-is-more under uncertainty.
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chapters (25)
- 0:00Welcome
- 0:25Agenda
- 1:36Situations of risk and uncertainty
- 9:26Intuitive decisions
- 13:50Defensive decisions
- 14:48Individual differences
- 15:52Defensive decisionmaking
- 18:10The recipe
- 19:30Heuristics
- 23:09Pareto model
- 23:43Heuristic
- 24:20Behavioral Economics
- 27:15Intuition
- 30:04Bias and variance
- 31:30How to reduce variance
- 32:47The turkey illusion
- 33:45The last financial crisis
- 34:43Predicting exchange rates
- 40:31Why are predictions made every year
- 42:24Intuitive design
- 43:03Fast and frugal trees
- 44:29Intuitive systems
- 49:03Regulatory banks
- 50:33Misconceptions
- 51:11Summary
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