You can’t predict the future – so try to enjoy it!
summary
Experts end up only marginally better than chance — a 20‑year study of 284 forecasters shows that — because brains prefer a believable story over stats. Concrete failures: the Hindenburg (hydrogen, helium embargo) explodes, Concord flies but proves economically dead, the Wii was written off and then succeeds. Simple systems like a double pendulum and weather ensembles show chaos and the gray‑bar uncertainty. Adopt rules: set exit criteria, avoid the sunk cost fallacy and resist the illusion of control.
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chapters (23)
- 0:00Intro
- 0:50Even the future was better
- 2:43The flying car
- 5:30Experts
- 11:15Predictions
- 12:13Iceland
- 14:24Shortterm decisions
- 15:55The Genie Dixon effect
- 17:15Confirmation bias
- 19:29Survivorship bias
- 20:35Our brain likes believable stories
- 21:15Back to the future
- 22:47Weather report
- 24:05Longterm future
- 26:43Coincidence
- 28:39Illusion of control
- 30:58Base rate neglect
- 32:46Business decisions
- 33:37No regrets
- 35:26Predicting the future
- 38:40Your plans to success
- 40:30Listen to experts
- 41:56Reading list
