The wisdom of crowds - an aspect of sprints you count on
summary
A live experiment has the audience write three numbers and shows that aggregated independent guesses beat lone experts: Galton’s 1907 ox estimate lands at median 1207 vs actual 1187 (<1% error), and recent classroom groups of about 15 students guessed almost perfectly. Giving raw data sometimes helps but is not sufficient; diversity and independence matter most. Recommendation: use short spikes and real experiments during refinement, keep estimates independent in planning, and fix quality at the source so teams learn from delivered work.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Wisdom of crowds experiment intro
- 3:20Galton’s historical experiment
- 5:13Modern validation of Galton
- 7:01Diverse groups outperform experts
- 8:04Context and data impact crowd wisdom
- 11:20Scrum lessons for planning
- 13:06Refinement as a process
- 14:54Summary and closing
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