The force behind decision-making – data, wisdom, and the crowds
summary
Companies start with small data projects: pick a business question, gather or buy the data, prepare and analyze it, deploy and iterate. Where data or skills are missing a web‑based prediction market among 34 regional sales managers runs for two weeks with €1,000 play money and 20 shares each, producing prices that aggregate information and yield forecasts about 15% more accurate than top‑down estimates. The talk highlights prediction markets as information‑aggregation tools, the €1,000/20‑share design, and the practical rebalancing of mind vs machine and core vs crowds.
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chapters (6)
- 0:00Introduction
- 1:07Decision making basics
- 3:21Data-driven approach
- 6:11Wisdom of crowds
- 9:19Prediction markets
- 17:07Digital transformation insights
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