What if? Simulation in portfolio management and replacing estimation as risk strategy
summary
Claims that replace estimation with AI powered portfolio simulation using Bayesian and dynamic system models and tools like zest Ki and product planners such as aha. Three case studies report concrete outcomes: a feature built in ~2 weeks yielding €420k annual revenue, a packaging change taking ~3 months growing €300k to €5M (≈16x), and a product from €0 to €10M in four years. The method uses kill criteria, bets and Kelly‑style sizing and reports these experiments as successful.
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chapters (18)
- 0:00Introduction
- 2:1010x profit vision in agile portfolio
- 4:58Why project plans fail
- 7:53Red Queen effect and value loss
- 10:44Complexity and adaptability
- 13:17Learning bottleneck in value creation
- 14:43Bets and expected value in decisions
- 16:52Case study: 420k revenue in 2 weeks
- 17:57Case study: 16x revenue in 3 months
- 19:41Case study: Zero to 10M in 4 years
- 21:45Portfolio as investment strategy
- 23:31Why estimates fail at portfolio level
- 24:36AI portfolio simulation for risk
- 26:42Learning from betting in portfolio
- 28:48Rapid hypothesis testing with AI
- 30:12Common objections to 10x growth
- 31:59AI threat to feature development
- 33:01Ready to 10x product development?
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