Secrets of Antony Green: Calculating notional margins for electoral redistributions
summary
Procedure to recreate notional margins from new boundaries using poll‑level returns and census areas: download boundary shapefiles, polling‑place results and coordinates, map booths into new divisions, apportion border booths by ABS SA1s or Voronoi polygons, and aggregate first preferences and two‑party preferred totals. Tools shown: R + QGIS + Postgres and simple CSVs. Example: new Fraser uses 27 booths and moves Labor from 70.8% -> 70.6% -> 71.1% depending on SA1 apportionment and declaration‑vote weighting; declaration and postal votes remain the biggest uncertainty.
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chapters (10)
- 0:00Introduction and disclaimers
- 1:50What is an electoral redistribution
- 5:25Modeling notional margins
- 7:32Data sources and tools
- 8:18Case study: Division of Fraser
- 10:48Handling border polling places
- 12:57Dealing with declaration votes
- 14:23Extending to other divisions
- 15:47Comparing methodologies
- 16:10Conclusion and Q&A
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