A practical introduction to prediction markets
summary
Hands-on workshop that runs live AMMs where participants mint complete sets for 100, buy single outcome tokens one-by-one and trade categorical, scalar and multiscalar markets; uses oracles like Claros/Kleros/Reality; demonstrates prediction market basics and conditional tokens with concrete results: speaker age resolves to 32, candle weight to 226 g, room continent shares resolved from 53 attendees (Asia ~20, Europe ~16); exposes the revelation-loss/liquidity problem for “when-we-learn” questions and suggests AMM+auction hybrids as a mitigation.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Prediction markets intro
- 29:26First prediction market game
- 32:07Market on a specific word
- 42:50Predicting speaker's age
- 1:08:45Limitations of scalar markets
- 1:26:20Estimating participant origins
- 1:31:16Decision-making with conditional tokens
- 1:45:19Summary and conclusion
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