Pessimists Archive Presents: The Franklin Fallacy, Why We Misjudge New Technologies
summary
Names the explicit cognitive error as The Franklin Fallacy and argues that judging tech by infancy leads to bad calls, using concrete tests: Edison tries 1,000+ filament materials before bamboo works; early bicycles are “bone shakers” until pneumatic tires; airplanes dismissed while airships ruled headlines; Ethereum’s move to proof‑of‑stake cuts energy use by 99%, showing an early limitation that later engineering actually solves.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (11)
- 0:00Franklin Fallacy introduction
- 2:29Defining the Franklin Fallacy
- 3:12Hot air balloons skepticism
- 4:17Airplanes as a fad
- 4:59Bicycles as bone shakers
- 5:42Edison’s light bulb persistence
- 6:47Home computers fad
- 8:10Steve Jobs’ long-term vision
- 9:54Cryptocurrency energy concerns
- 11:37Why this framework matters
- 12:21Q&A
related talks
33mThe Innovation Delusion
34mFrom hard science to baseless opinions: where did we go wrong?
19mIs Technology Making Us Stupid
16mExistential Engineering or How Ethics Precedes Error Handling
38mDesign for Cognitive Bias: Using Mental Shortcuts for Good
35mThe Tech We All Deserve
58mAnalogue Evolution, Digital Revolution: Tipping Points in Technology
49mChallenging Dystopianism: Futures Literacy & Radical Imagination...