Reducing risk in projects, increasing resilience to unexpected change
summary
Introduces Estuarine Mapping that lists actants (actors, constraints, constructors, plus “dark” actants) and plots them on an energy vs time grid to mark counterfactual, liminal and volatile items so the environment is changed before a project starts. Describes a portfolio risk matrix (natural vs forced emergence crossed with coarse vs fine granularity), micro-sensing human metadata for continuous weak‑signal detection, a four‑role distributed decision‑making pattern that funds safe‑to‑fail probes and routes real money to what demonstrably works.
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chapters (12)
- 0:00Complexity and risk management
- 1:09Systems thinking vs complexity
- 3:37Weak signals in projects
- 8:12Unpredictability in projects
- 14:11Present navigation over future
- 19:48Estuarine Mapping for risk
- 26:19Distributed decisions in projects
- 31:12Microsensing and human metadata
- 36:25Cultural mapping with micro narratives
- 38:10Breaking frameworks with Hexi
- 40:36Ecological metaphors in management
- 40:57Q&A
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