Epiphany & Apophany
summary
Argues that pattern-seeking leads to wrong fixes and frozen processes, illustrates using Cynefin, Wardley Maps and SenseMaker to choose safe-to-fail probes like timeboxed spikes, prototypes and alpha tests, and insists on indicators and coherence before scaling. Gives concrete surprises: a new African forest elephant species only identified in 2002, a production bug that cost ~£45M, and a 50% snake-probability study showing max stress — and shows a practical win: beehive fences (with fake hives) keep elephants from crops.
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chapters (13)
- 0:00Intro
- 4:20Ladder of inference
- 7:53Biases
- 9:34Innovation cycle
- 11:31Cynefin
- 19:43Wardley Maps
- 23:49Cynefin continued
- 28:30Escaping analysis paralysis
- 30:51Coherence
- 32:08Correlated in retrospect
- 34:30Sensemaker
- 40:11Takeaways
- 41:50Outro
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