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Probabilistic Analysis of WCETs on RT Systems: When Your Worst Case Isn't Worst

Talkat DevConf.US 2025 · 2025-09-19..09-20· [machine-learning]
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A measurement toolkit applies EVT and the generalized Pareto distribution to PREEMPT_RT latency traces, selects thresholds via a stability plot, and reports converged parameters after 96 hours of sampling. It diagnoses sources of outliers (cache effects and kernel housekeeping), fits an extrapolatable model, and claims with 99.9% confidence that worst-case latency stays below 15 microseconds over extreme horizons, enabling data-backed SLAs rather than guesswork.

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