Kyle Kotowick at DDD Europe 2025
summary
An internal FAA risk analysis completed a month after the Lion Air crash and before the second crash estimates one crash every three years across the Max fleet, based on a ~45 year lifespan, yielding 15 crashes and using 220 seats and 160 average passengers to compute an expected 2400 to 3,400 deaths. Boeing and the FAA later release details but continue to allow the jet to fly despite that projection.
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