Spatial Spread of Dengue Virus: Appropriate Spatial Scales for Transmission
summary
City-level dengue spread hinges on the household scale: Aedes aegypti disperses <100 m so human movement drives city spread; GPS traces from Iquitos (≈300,000 people) and DNA bloodmeal profiling find extreme bite concentration — 3 people 56% of blood meals. Standard multi-patch ODE R0 formulas (next-generation matrices) often miss local stochastic depletion in small households, while individual-based simulations show movement changes outbreak size. Proposed remedy is household-level branching process models that combine within-household final-size calculations with between-household transmission.
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chapters (9)
- 0:00Introduction to dengue
- 1:36Dengue pathology and vectors
- 7:23Modeling complexity debate
- 9:26Basic reproduction models
- 16:06Impact of heterogeneity
- 23:38Multi-type modeling analysis
- 32:22Human movement and scaling
- 47:23Households model approach
- 55:03Discussion and Q&A
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