~/talk

The Limits of Reputation in Platform Markets

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Uses eBay internal data on 935,000 new buyers tracked ~3 years (15M purchases, 1.8M sellers) to show that traditional percent-positive scores are biased by silent buyers and retaliation; defines effective percent positive (positives ÷ total transactions) and finds sellers in the top EPP quartile raise buyer return-to-eBay probability by about 4% and return-to-seller by ~2%. Natural-language signals from post-sale messages (the negative message rate) predict dissatisfaction as strongly as EPP. A randomized search demotion experiment (10% traffic, ~3pp EPP shift) changes outcomes without lowering short-run conversion.

AI-written summary · about

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 0:42Platform Markets and Quality Control
  3. 3:53Contributions
  4. 10:12Conceptual Framework
  5. 12:43What do buyers use to form expectations? Reputation! After every eBay transaction
  6. 20:46Feedback is Biased
  7. 23:19Effective Percent Positive (EPP) EPP
  8. 24:27EPP Distribution
  9. 27:37The Distribution of Buyer Purchases
  10. 28:28The Scope for Externalities is real
  11. 28:59The Main Regression: "Loyalty. (Voice) and Exit"
  12. 31:29Main Regression Results: Ever Return
  13. 38:51Measuring Treatment Effect: Discounted Search EPP
  14. 43:31Concluding Remarks
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