Trading Insights from On-Chain Data
summary
Claims that blockchains reveal supply and demand every 15 seconds and that a 2.7 MVRV implies average wallet is ~170% unrealized profit, so market isn’t at cyclical top yet; a cohort analysis tool filters exchange inflows to separate illicit, miner, ETF/custodial flows and finds old-whale cost basis ≈ $21k vs custodial ≈ $60k and ~1.8M BTC (~$150B) moved via ETFs, unrealized profits: TradFi 1%, old whales 200%, miners 30–81%; one-year inactive supply ≈ 70%; wallet labeling spots third-party failures—observed 93% reserve decline before FTX collapse.
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chapters (7)
- 0:00On-chain data introduction
- 2:01Using on-chain data today
- 3:45Market cycles with realized price
- 5:59Whale cost bases and liquidity
- 7:53Whale risk in derivatives
- 9:00Retail and long-term holders
- 10:09Q&A on chaos and contagion
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