Is the Bull Market Over Before It Started?
summary
Claims that the bull market is real but only halfway through, with price action starting March–April 2023 and typical crypto cycles ~2 years, so expect 3–6 month trading swings and a risk of a correction next month. BitMEX publishes proof of reserves twice weekly covering >90% of assets. Rising global public debt and sustained higher interest rates create downside risk. Bitcoin active addresses rise modestly from ~3M to ~5M. ETFs boost futures open interest and enable the basis trade arbitrage but can accelerate sell pressure when unwound; new ATHs possible by mid/late Q3.
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chapters (14)
- 0:00Intro
- 1:30Global macroeconomics
- 2:23Global debt
- 3:03Interest rates
- 4:14Market attractiveness
- 4:35Crypto adoption
- 4:59Active addresses
- 5:49Institutional money
- 6:25My take
- 6:58ETFs
- 8:20Basis Trade
- 9:26Exchange Balances
- 10:51Today
- 12:08Summary
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