Modeling the Evolution of Within-host Reproductive Rates in Pathogens
summary
Field data show canine rabies R0 clustered near one across very different Tanzanian districts despite ~5× differences in dog density and contact tracing that reconstructed ~70–80% of chains. Lattice simulations (square grid, eight neighbors) let transmission rate beta and infectious duration evolve and, under fixed time course dynamics, produce traveling vortices and an emergent, self-limited R0 near one; adding log‑normal variance produces a sharp phase transition to local extinction. The mechanism acts by local susceptible depletion — call it spatial burnout.
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chapters (15)
- 0:00Intro
- 1:39The basic reproductive number
- 3:37The rabies puzzle
- 7:01Digression: heterogeneity and Ro
- 11:20The commensal theory
- 12:19The tradeoff theory
- 18:56Modeling assumptions
- 21:00Self-limiting pathogens
- 21:44Digression: burnout
- 23:15A simple model
- 23:50Fixed time course
- 30:08Variable time course (sdlog=0.2)
- 32:14The conventional wisdom
- 34:26An approximation
- 36:25Conclusion
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