Predico: A Collaborative Forecasting Market for the Energy Sector
summary
Predico runs a daily two-sided market: buyers fund forecasting competitions and multiple suppliers submit forecasts that Predico filters for outliers and combines with an open-source forecasting engine. Pilots for the Belgian TSO (Ilia) and 50Hz deploy three markets (wind and solar), growing from ~16 to 30+ participants; top performers can earn ~€1,000 per market/month (so €3k across three). Operational results show Predico ensembles beat incumbent forecasts by about 11% deterministic and 25% probabilistic, and an agentic auto-research loop evolves ensemble strategies as ingredients change.
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chapters (11)
- 0:00Introduction to Predico
- 3:12From data market to forecasting
- 6:20Proof of concept results
- 10:33How Predico runs
- 13:23Combining forecasts effectively
- 16:54Building dynamic ensembles
- 19:43Live demo of platform
- 21:08Performance comparison
- 24:22Potential improvements
- 26:55Incentives and rewards
- 30:36Open source and future
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