Estimation is a waste of time
summary
Actual before-and-after numbers and charts show story point estimates vs real cycle times, with a shift to probabilistic forecasting using team throughput and cycle-time history. The process uses flow metrics (cycle time, throughput, WIP) plus Monte Carlo sampling to produce percentile dates (50% / 85% / 95%), a three-tier planning cadence, and concrete outcomes: 60% less time on estimation while improving forecast confidence and stakeholder risk conversations.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (6)
- 0:00Introduction
- 4:30Problem with traditional estimates
- 10:31Deterministic to probabilistic
- 14:41Four alternatives
- 24:47Changing stakeholder talks
- 26:59Summary
