PNSQC 2014 - Hillel Glazer
summary
Claim: decisions made from only historical points create lag and unpredictable outcomes. Proposal: break work into small pieces, measure cycle time variation, set baselines and statistical models to forecast instead of guessing, limit WIP and visualize flow, and create slack so teams can reduce variation. Concrete targets include avoiding >70–80% utilization and planning on ~4–4.5 productive hours per day. Practices shown are simple metrics (time, defects, movement, volume), forecasting from baselines, and the discipline to stop starting start finishing with WIP limits.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Start
- 1:00Unpeeling the Onion
- 3:11Advanced Decision-Making for Creating and Sustaining High Performance Operations
- 5:56Metrics results against goals Capabilities: known vs. speculative Baselines: current performance Models: tool for predicting future performance Forecasts: instead of estimates Certainty or lack thereof and why
- 49:15Lack of Slack is one of many causes
- 56:16One image to bring home the connection between slack, lag and uncertainty
- 58:11Do you want a simple way to start?
- 58:33Start with steps that eliminate lag & promote flow.
