I’m 83% confident this’ll be useful
summary
Claims that a simple probabilistic question improves estimates using Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets framework, demonstrated with an 83% opener and an 80% product‑page example that exposes a what’s in that 20% unknown (waiting on final designs, signoffs, tests). Tools are three follow‑ups — why that percent, why not lower, what raises it — plus reframing the number to externalize ambiguity. Result is clearer scope, actionable follow‑ups, and more realistic timeline communication.
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chapters (5)
- 0:00Welcome to probabilistic thinking
- 1:07Why 83% confidence
- 3:33Digging deeper into confidence
- 7:03Externalizing estimations
- 8:51Practical advice and call to action
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