Regime Change, Macro for 2H23
summary
Claims that the bull market begins on March 10, 2023 bailout after SVB/Signature, backed by a 35% crypto rise; uses Fed balance-sheet vs Bitcoin charts and an Atlanta Fed nowcast 5.6% Q3 GDP to estimate ~9.3% nominal GDP, so the 2‑year yield ~4.9% implies a startling real yield ≈ −4.4%. Shows US must issue ~$1.85T debt, deficits near 8% of GDP, and argues higher rates paradoxically boost nominal growth via interest paid to savers, which can support crypto either way.
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chapters (12)
- 0:00Introduction
- 1:28Bitcoin as fiat liquidity
- 4:19SVB collapse and bull market
- 7:57Fed balance sheet and Bitcoin
- 10:30Stress testing no rate cuts
- 12:18Real rates and growth
- 15:24US GDP growth vs Fed policy
- 17:13Capital gains taxes and deficits
- 21:27Fed inflation fight and markets
- 24:57Negative real rates and assets
- 26:43Breaking macro playbook
- 28:52Conclusion
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