~/talk

Quantitative Tightening Ends in December – Is the Bitcoin Cycle Just Starting?

Talkat Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 · 2025-11-13..11-14· [bitcoin]
name:Ben Cowen
links:none on file
slides:none on file

Jerome Powell confirms QT ends in December, which is argued to trigger the next Bitcoin leg as institutional flows replace retail. Analysis uses a global M2 lagged three months chart and cointegration tests to claim mean reversion potential. Evidence: ETF approvals in 2024 and BlackRock-backed strategic reserves, cycle already the longest on record, and Bitcoin dominance 38% to 66% this cycle, implying slower, steadier upside with smaller drawdowns rather than a retail-fueled parabolic spike.

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