Is Bitcoin's 4 Year Cycle Ending?
summary
Argues that the canonical four‑year rhythm may be breaking: halving issuance from 900 to 450 matters less now versus ETF flows and macro, on‑chain data shows current supply movement and holders, and past cycle multipliers (2013 ~100x, 2017 ~30x, 2021 ~8x) trend down toward a projected ~3x unless demand changes. Cites concrete market facts: GBTC sucked up 660,000 BTC, recent ETFs pause then resume with $2.5B inflows in two weeks and an ETF average cost basis $58.2k, plus institutional allocations and wallet counts (~34M wallets >$200).
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chapters (14)
- 0:00Intro
- 3:08What drives the 4 year cycle
- 4:35Bitcoin at scale
- 6:13Retail interest in Bitcoin
- 7:20Inflation adjusted dollars
- 8:11Institutional interest
- 10:26Diminishing returns
- 13:38Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
- 15:24Cycles
- 19:14Donald Trump
- 21:20Getting a billion users
- 22:14Bitcoin in Africa
- 23:11Bitcoin Users
- 25:30Outro
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