~/talk

Analyzing the Bitcoin Market

on YouTube 15m
Talkat Bitcoin Amsterdam 2022 · 2022-10-12..10-14· [bitcoin]

speaker

name:Root
links:none on file

resources

video:https://youtu.be/UP0HPPJCIH8
slides:none on file

summary

On-chain cycle analysis classifies coins by spending behavior using a 25% spending threshold to mark liquid supply, then compares liquid vs illiquid across halvings. Claims: liquid supply peaks at the third halving (~28% liquid, 72% illiquid); coin-flow numbers show ~3,900 coins/day added early vs ~2,700 becoming illiquid, then post-third halving ~900 coins/day new supply while ~1,700/day enters the liquid pool. A conservative huddle model predicts tightening scarcity ahead, while a demand proxy hits all-time lows.

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chapters (4)

  1. 0:00Start
  2. 5:51Classifying the Supply
  3. 6:14Spending Behavior
  4. 11:42The Second Having

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