Probabilistic Models for Pathogen Evolution Within and Between Hosts
summary
Within-host ODE viral dynamics plus a Poisson mutation model shows the probability of antigenic immune escape first rises then falls with increasing host immunity, implying partially immune hosts drive influenza antigenic change and explaining mouse passage results. A stochastic shape-space CTMC for HIV (variable + conserved epitopes) reproduces late, highly mutated broadly neutralizing antibodies and predicts they’re more likely with higher initial viral diversity, suggesting multistrain immunogens. A two-level Moran/urn model has deterministic PDE and Fleming–Viot SPDE limits; outcome hinges on lambda = WR/S and finite group size favors group-beneficial types.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (15)
- 0:00Intro
- 0:24Pathogen evolution
- 1:43Antigenic drift of influenza
- 3:54Viral dynamics and evolution
- 4:42ODEs with Poisson mutation
- 10:56Results: Population level
- 15:31Broadly neutralizing HIV antibodies are highly mutated
- 18:04'Bitstring' model
- 21:04Conserved region is less accessible
- 22:36Binding properties
- 25:29Infection with single strain
- 28:48Vaccine strategies
- 30:01Multilevel selection in host- pathogen systems
- 37:53Properties of particle system Relative rate of replication acts like group-level selection
- 40:12Long-term behavior of PDE
related talks
30mDisease Modeling with Scipy and PyMC
19mA Metacommunity Model of Interacting Hosts with Microbe Exchange
25mOver- and Under-Estimation of Vaccine Effectiveness
01h 10mFunctional Law of Large Numbers and PDEs for Spatial Epidemic Models with...
56mA Global Comparison of COVID-19 Variant Waves and Relationships with Clinical and...
31mBayesian Risk Analysis For Large Multi-Modal Data
52mTransmission Neural Networks: From Virus Spread Models to Neural Networks
52mAn Evolutionary Model of Economic Behavior, Bounded Rationality, and Intelligence