Ignite - How to Use Scrum Poker to Slay Estimations
summary
Planning Poker and simple spreadsheets generate 196 story points for a large release, but real team velocity runs from 20 to an effective 17 points/week, plus ongoing maintenance and QA, so add a 30% contingency for unknown technical complexity and scope creep; after those adjustments the plan slips from a September target to an actual release on December 13, showing estimations work only when velocity, maintenance, QA time, vacations and a contingency are explicitly included.
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