Here's What Past Pandemics Foretell About the Post-COVID Economy
summary
Compares 1918 and 1957 flu and HIV/AIDS to argue COVID lethality likely modest relative to worst pandemics while early models produced a 2.2 million projection that drove lockdowns. Notes short term deflation from shutdowns but warns of later inflation in weak-currency countries. Points to accelerated central bank digital currency experiments and wider use of Alipay and WeChat Pay in China plus Taiwan’s privacy-preserving contact tracing app. Predicts firms can restart supply chains but consumer demand won't restart quickly and the S&P 500 is skewed toward big tech.
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chapters (6)
- 0:00Intro
- 1:00Past Pandemics
- 7:00Currency Experimentation
- 9:15The Great Degeneration
- 13:30The Pandemic Paradox
- 16:20The Future
