Why Planning for Success So Often Leads to Failure
summary
Argues that detailed plans fail because markets are complex adaptive systems and the future is not a linear projection; cites the ABCDE framework (co‑developed with Stephen McCrone) as a tool for contextual adaptation. Gives concrete numbers: 177 Elvis impersonators in 1977 versus 85,000 in 2000 and a facetious extrapolation to March 3, 2031 to illustrate the Elvis fallacy. Notes pandemic e‑commerce compressed ~10 years of growth into 3–4 months and that planning kills innovation via alignment filters; emphasizes adjacent possible.
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chapters (11)
- 0:00Introduction and welcome
- 1:34Delusions of determinism
- 4:01What is strategy?
- 6:52Why plans fail
- 10:09Reasons for plan failure
- 13:22Complex adaptive systems
- 16:55Innovation and constraints
- 19:01Agile and over-constrained movement
- 20:45What strategy should be
- 22:36Paradigm shift in strategy
- 23:19Final thoughts
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