~/talk

Time Series Forecasting on CoronaVirus Dataset

Talkat PyCon India 2020 · 2020-10-02..10-05· [machine-learning]
slides:none on file

Live work uses the coronavirus confirmed-cases time series and compares naive forecasting, moving average, linear regression, SVM, LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet with RMSEs reported: moving average ~42,000, linear regression ~35,000, SVM ~22,000, LSTM ~10,000, Prophet ~9,000, ARIMA ~4,000, so ARIMA best (RMSE ≈ 4,000). Code and dataset pointers are on the presenter’s GitHub; the talk shows plotted forecasts, training/validation splits and which approaches actually track short-term trends versus overfit: data: confirmed cases time series models: naive MA LR SVM LSTM ARIMA Prophet.

AI-written summary · about

  1. 0:00Introduction
  2. 0:30Agenda
  3. 2:25History of pandemic
  4. 4:08Metrics
  5. 4:38Prediction and Forecasting
  6. 7:05Moving Average
  7. 7:28Window Size
  8. 7:49Graph
  9. 8:25Linear Regression
  10. 9:03Linear Regression Training
  11. 9:35Linear Regression Library
  12. 10:02Linear Regression Fit
  13. 10:23Graphing
  14. 12:23Point in 3D
  15. 12:38Classification
  16. 12:58Vector Machine
  17. 14:52Plot
  18. 15:16Why RNN
  19. 16:11RNN Architecture
  20. 16:27Vanishing Gradient
  21. 17:52LTSM
  22. 19:18Activation Function
  23. 20:06Forecasting
  24. 21:23Profit
  25. 21:51Plotting
  26. 22:06Results
  27. 22:29Questions
  28. 25:12Learnings
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