Why Bad Decisions Happen
summary
Argues bad decisions come from mismatched knowledge, overconfidence and hidden incentives rather than topic ignorance, and from gaps between formal authority and informal influence. Shows concrete tools: Rumsfeld matrix for known/unknowns, a ten‑card Moving Motivators exercise, a 3D systemic constellation for mapping relations, a Decision KP map to align knowledge and power, and influence mapping to trace who persuades whom. Uses examples like interns, “propaganda writers,” givers vs takers and gives practical fixes: move people, share information or shift influence.
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chapters (21)
- 0:00Introduction and quote
- 1:10Who am I and why this talk
- 2:37Defining a bad decision
- 4:24Decisions with one person
- 7:12Knowledge awareness and biases
- 9:41Rationality and self-perception
- 11:08Motivating factors in decisions
- 13:37Moving Motivators exercise
- 15:23Decisions with two people
- 18:40Knowledge overlap and assumptions
- 19:01Power dynamics in decisions
- 22:08Power perception and hierarchy
- 24:43Givers, takers and matchers
- 29:00Decisions with multiple people
- 31:27Tools to analyze decisions
- 32:11Moving Motivators self-reflection
- 33:20Systemic constellation work
- 35:07Decision KP map
- 39:02Influence mapping
- 41:52Summary and final thoughts
- 44:32Q&A: Propaganda writers
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