Past, Present & Future of the Exponential Transition
summary
Argument: exponential technologies get steadily cheaper and displace commodities and incumbents, shown with mapped price curves and market-share shifts. Evidence: genome sequencing −28%/yr, lithium‑ion batteries −16%/yr, compute and sequencing ~10× cheaper over a decade. Examples: PCs replacing typewriters in 12–13 years, next‑gen sequencing in ~8 years, horse→car ~10–15 years, Norway’s EV uptake jumping from 5% to ~75% of new registrations within a decade. Fossil fuels show volatility, not decline.
AI-written summary · about
chapters (13)
- 0:00Intro
- 0:44Generalisations
- 1:17Apple at 100
- 1:57Exponential Technologies
- 3:29Energy Trends
- 4:30Technology Transition
- 4:57The Immigrant Market
- 5:33The Car Market
- 6:28Norway is not alone
- 6:57Markets expand
- 8:01Extreme Assumptions
- 8:53Hard to Predict
- 9:33Future Discussion
related talks
36mThe world in 2029
58mThe Next Decade of Software Development
01h 04mNavigating the AI Revolution
16mHow tech shifts and market trends are reshaping connected ecosystems
26mBig Data and the Future of Business
38mAI’s Evolving Landscape: Opportunities Strategy Economics and Sustainable Advantage
14mThe Darwinian nature of on-demand business
31mHow to Embrace the Futures: A Guide to Creating a Prepared Mindset