From Individual-based Population Models to Lineage-based Models of Phylogenetic Trees
summary
Lineage-based birth–death models map to coalescent point process trees when speciation and extinction depend only on time, age or nonheritable traits, giving an explicit product-form likelihood and fast simulation. Applied to bird trees yields a mean species lifetime ≈50 My and speciation ≈0.1/Myr with inferred gamma lifetimes >1 (extinction rising with age). A protracted‑speciation model fits 46 bird clades and estimates duration of speciation between ~10^4 and 10^7 years. Algorithms include differential-equation solves, a three‑type branching representation and peeling for likelihoods.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Introduction and statistics
- 3:51Lineage-based models
- 6:16Reconstructed trees
- 13:49Extinction and age dependence
- 16:47Protracted speciation
- 26:09Genetic differentiation
- 32:27Individual-based models
- 37:44Q&A session
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