Evolutionary Rescue in Structured Populations

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An island model with two genotypes (wild type and single mutant), mutation rate u and parameters r (wild-type decline) and m (migration) is analyzed using deterministic wild-type dynamics plus a time-dependent branching-process approximation for mutant establishment; simulations validate the analytics. Main claims: rescue probability is often non-monotonic in both r and m, because standing genetic variation plus density-dependent competition can make very severe change easier to rescue, and gene flow creates opposing effects (source of mutants vs. swamping), yielding intermediate optima. Results match some experimental patterns but require more data.

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" chapters (11)

1. 0:00Introduction to the problem
2. 1:21Empirical context
3. 6:27Theoretical framework
4. 10:14Modeling population structure
5. 15:58Analytical approach
6. 20:26Defining subcases
7. 25:23Density dependence limitations
8. 26:54Severity of change results
9. 30:35Migration rate effects
10. 34:56Summary and conclusions
11. 39:48Questions and discussion