Deploying a Prediction Market
summary
Concrete demo building a binary onchain market with Scaffold-ETH and the Speedrun Ethereum challenge, minting 100 yes and 100 no tokens and setting a winning share price at ~0.018 ETH; liquidity provider boots the pool, locks 12 and 8 tokens (≈10% lock) to anchor a 60% initial probability so a single buy moves probability only to ~61.9%. A 30‑second car race visualizes trading, settlement uses a centralized oracle (market creator) and winners redeem ETH successfully.
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chapters (22)
- 0:00Introduction to prediction markets
- 0:32Polymarket and real-world examples
- 1:27Trading, composability, and decentralization
- 1:58Collective forecasting and accuracy
- 2:56Binary prediction markets explained
- 4:05Token-based outcomes and probability pricing
- 5:04Components: tokens, liquidity, and oracles
- 6:07Setting up the Speedrun Ethereum challenge
- 6:44Scaffold-ETH setup and commands
- 7:32Contracts overview: market and token
- 8:39Role of liquidity providers
- 9:20Bootstrapping with initial parameters
- 10:21Locking tokens to prevent price swings
- 11:52Example of market imbalance
- 12:23Setting initial probabilities
- 13:52Demo: car race market
- 14:59Buying and selling Yes/No tokens
- 16:12Oracle reporting and settlement
- 17:39Redeeming winnings and losses
- 18:50Liquidity provider mechanics and risks
- 19:56LP fees and design variations
- 20:29Oracle decentralization and future improvements
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