The Economics of a CRQC
summary
If a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) appears with credible six‑month timelines, the market decides between a soft fork that disables EC and the fork that doesn’t by pricing a large supply overhang — roughly 1–2 million coins exposed by past public keys — into futures before activation; outcomes hinge on migration uptake speed, BIP361’s two‑year migration assumption, whether wallets actually roll out new address types, and technical mitigations like a pre‑commitment/seed‑proof reclaim that lets dormant coins be preserved without on‑chain spends.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Quantum computing vs Bitcoin
- 1:05CRQC and elliptic curve spends
- 3:55Bitcoin fork market dynamics
- 7:25Quantum theft supply and demand
- 11:38Bitcoin’s philosophy beyond supply-demand
- 17:15Realistic quantum scenarios
- 22:10Bitcoin’s quantum response outcome
- 24:42Q&A mining incentives
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