Of Black Swans & Grey Rhinos: Enhancing NATO’s Resilience to Future Crises
summary
Convergence of genomic tech and machine learning accelerates identification of harmful sequences and raises real risk to convert low-risk pathogens to high-risk or even engineer novel agents; global build‑out of high‑containment labs expands dual‑use capacity. NATO can require transparency, adopt qualitative compliance assessments for the bioweapons treaty, and build multistakeholder governance with industry. Parallel threats: networked autonomous weapons and AI demand deterrence by denial, new wargames and education (91% leaders flag AI; Oxford finds 47% jobs at risk), while geo‑economic coercion (a 40% export drop in one case) needs strategic economic responses.
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chapters (9)
- 0:00Introduction
- 1:57Biological Threats
- 8:00The Grey Rhino
- 12:10Geoeconomics
- 17:21Informational Threats
- 20:43Resilience
- 22:14Biosecurity
- 23:37Economic Security
- 26:03Conclusion
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