Helping Organizations Anticipate and Approach Emerging Technology Threats
summary
Argues that applying NASA TRL maturity levels plus adapted MITRE ATT&CK and diamond-model mappings gives concrete triggers and timelines for emerging-tech risk. Uses data sources from mainstream press, Gartner, IPO/stock data, arXiv/Web of Science and patent feeds to show a fragmented quantum market (~600+ startups) and public claims: IBM factoring 35 (2019), Google’s estimate needing ~20 million noisy qubits to break RSA, and a debunked 25‑qubit claim. Concludes quantum only threatens asymmetric PKI (not AES) and remains largely theoretical for ~20 years; recommends TRL thresholds and watchlists for harvest now decrypt later scenarios.
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chapters (14)
- 0:00Emerging tech threat intro
- 1:10CTI for emerging threats
- 3:17NASA TRLs for threats
- 5:46TRL barometer mapping
- 7:14Present vs emerging threats
- 9:26Data sources for different technology maturity stages
- 11:59Quantum threat case study
- 16:18Quantum threat data analysis
- 20:35Theoretical exploits context
- 23:26Threat actors & scenarios
- 28:02Risk models from findings
- 31:20Simplifying threats for execs
- 34:09Proactive scoping & value
- 35:13Key takeaways
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