Foresight Analysis: The Magic Eight Ball of Intelligence Analysis
summary
Shows a practical program that trains CTI teams to move from reactive, data-driven work to proactive foresight using structured analytic techniques and measured experiments. Runs a February–April pilot with cross‑sector groups of 20+ practitioners, uses cluster brainstorming into MLE and a Post‑It workflow to generate drivers and scenarios, teaches taught SATs to 20+ CTI members, documents outputs on a timeline and will monitor and assess accuracy over time to test value, and already sees teams identify biases and use alternative hypotheses to improve reporting.
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chapters (8)
- 0:00Introduction to foresight
- 2:20Intelligence and CTI
- 5:21Shifting to proactive analysis
- 9:20Nordic CTI collaboration
- 12:58Analytical techniques
- 17:18Research experiment results
- 21:42Conclusion and core value
- 23:55Q&A and closing
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